Global Climate Change Update
April 2006
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE UPDATE:
What will Santa Claus Do?
What will Santa Claus Do?
Cindy Russell, M.D.
Chair Environmental Health Committee
There may be some that think that climate change is an interesting science fiction experiment. Unfortunately it is no longer a debate- that is among climatologists- the expert scientists that actually study the atmosphere and compile massive amounts of data from thousands of laboratory experiments, satellite dishes, balloon observations, core ice samples, etc. Climate is well understood. The unpredictability depends on a complex interaction of industrial dust, methane, CO2, water vapor and remaining chlorofluorocarbons that trap heat in the atmosphere and keep it 33 degrees higher than it would be without them.
All climatologists agree we have already begun warming with the average global temperature rising by 0.6 degrees since the mid-19th century. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world with average winter temperatures in Alaska, western Canada and Eastern Russia have increased as much as 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 50 years. It doesn’t seem like much but a 6 degree cooler temperature would give us another ice age.
Although some believe we have 100 year to come to grips with this issue others believe we have crossed the threshold of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. A 2004 report from the Pentagon argues that global warming is a greater threat to world security than terrorism and could possibly affect us dramatically by 2020. The implications for human health range from direct deaths and injury with extreme weather, increases in vector borne diseases, drought and global starvations due to decreases in agricultural production to massive human dislocation due to sea level rise up to 20 feet. At the least our lifestyles are also at risk with a prediction of a 70-90% loss of the sierra snow pack in addition to degradation of the quality of wine in California due to heat with ripening, according to a National Academy of Science report in 2004.
Data that is real:
*CO2: CO2 in the atmosphere has risen 30% from pre-industrial times and continues to rise unabated with an actual increase in the rate of rise seen in the last few years. Core ice samples taken November, 2005 by European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) demonstrate the highest levels of CO2 in the atmosphere today than at any point in the last 650,000 years. Human produced CO2? Yes! We can’t blame it on the dinosaurs. Carbon dioxide is blamed for two thirds of all global warming and is largely produced when burning fossil fuels.
*Ozone Hole: October 2005, the global Monitoring Division of NOAA announced that the hole in the Antarctic ozone extended to near record proportions at 27 million square kilometers (larger than North America) despite a reduction in CFC’s.
* Sea Ice: A NASA report in the summer of 2005 showed that the Arctic sea ice around the North Pole shrank to 200 million square miles -500,000 square miles less than its average area between 1979 and 2000. Satellite measurements of the sea ice in the Arctic this winter have shown that the sea ice has failed to reform for the second consecutive winter, raising concerns that global warming may have tipped the Polar Regions into irreversible, premature climate change. What will Santa Claus do?
*Glacial Ice Caps: In November 2005 Geophysical Research Letters published evidence that Greenland’s vast ice cap may be at the point of irreversible meltdown. Tanzania’s Kilimanjaro ice fields lost more than 80% of its area in the last century and within 15 years, it will be gone altogether.
August 2005, the New Scientist reported that in Western Siberia a permafrost area the size of France and Germany combined is thawing for the first time since the Ice Age. The warming peat moss would release enough methane (20 times more potent greenhouse gas than CO2) to dramatically increase the rate of global warming according to Oxford scientists who discovered the melt. They stated this was yet another feed back loop that is probably irreversible and undoubtedly connected to global warming. These feedback loops in global warming, scientists say, become self-reinforcing at a certain point, speeding up the process.
*Gulf Stream Waters: In a December 2005 article in Nature, a group of British oceanographers from the National Oceanography Center reported that the Gulf Stream has diminished in strength by 30% over the past 50 years. They were alarmed at such a dramatic change so soon. A well respected researcher, Professor Chris Rapely, at Cambridge-based British Antarctic Survey (BAS) discovered recently that a massive Antarctic ice sheet previously assumed to be stable may be starting to disintegrate as it’s ice is melting into the sea at a rate of 250 cubic kilometers a year. There is concern that these ice streams are not only raising sea levels but also are shifting the Gulf Stream.
Nature feeling the heat
*Birds have an earlier spring: 2002 Nature study showed that global warming was forcing the world’s flora and fauna to shift their ranges and was affecting egg laying and migration in birds. The average acceleration of these activities was 5.2 days earlier each decade. For some like the tree swallow nesting was 20 days earlier than it was 24 years ago.
*Plants blooming earlier: May 2005- Terry Root, a Stanford scientist reported in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science that atmospheric greenhouse gases and aerosols can cause regional climate change that alters the activities of animals and plants in the springtime. In the Northern Hemisphere she found plants blooming an average of 10 days earlier than they did 30 years ago.
*Shorter Hibernation: Inouye in 2000 reported Marmots in Colorado are coming out of hibernation 23 days earlier than 23 years ago.
*Islands Shrinking: The island of Vaitupu in the South Pacific has experienced a 10 foot loss of beachfront in the last 10 years. Extreme storms and large waves that were seasonal now occur all year long, changing the landscape of the small islands in the region. Smithsonian, August, 2004.
*Loss of Krill in the Ocean: November, 2004 Nature article describes the findings of a team of international researchers looking at long term patterns of Krill (heart of the Antarctic food chain) numbers in the Antarctic Peninsula. They found an 80% decrease in Antarctic Krill numbers since 1976. As Krill are the base of the food chain for penguins, whales and seals, there is concern. Adelie penguins have also declined 70% in this area since 1974. The scientists linked Krill decline to global warming and loss of sea ice which is habitat for the krill larvae. This area has warmed by 4.5 degrees
Fahrenheit.
Denial: Out of sight out of mind
A few skeptics on global warming are allowing many of us to deny the reality. The signs of global warming are already happening all around us from Alaska to the Andes although it may not be in plain site to many of us. Scientists from multiple disciplines are joining forces to make their voices heard. A statement representing 11 countries equivalent of national science academies including the United States and China, recently urged world leaders to take immediate action to curb greenhouse gas emissions. It stated “The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action.” Indeed many are.
Insurance companies are also realizing a loss in profit with unexpected natural disasters that cost American $20 billion in 2002. United Nations data indicate that losses owing to natural disasters have reached $1 trillion over the last 15 years. These costs will increase.
Shining light not heat on solutions
Germany has led the way in curbing emission by building Bavarian solar “parks” and solar “farms” with more power, less pollution and low operating costs. We could easily do the same.
In California there is a lot of action. California adopted the world's first standards designed to cut global warming pollution from new cars and trucks. The 2004 historic law requires automakers to reduce heat-trapping exhaust from new vehicles by about 30 percent over the next decade.
The California Climate Action Registry created by former Senator Byron Sher brings policymakers, businesses, academics and NGO’s together to understand the problems with global greenhouse emissions and learn to find ways to curb them in a proactive and cost efficient manner. Sustainable Silicon Valley has also started a campaign to reduce CO2 emissions 20% by 2010.
What you can do to curb the heat wave? Make Priorities for personal action.
There are many ways to reduce energy in the home and office with energy efficient lighting and fluorescent bulbs, turning off the lights, reducing heating and cooling, skylights and sun tunnels, reducing consumption of goods and eating locally grown foods that don’t require transportation. You can also get solar panels for electricity and hot water.
What is the most important thing you can do? According to The Consumers Guide to Effective Environmental Choices by Michael Brower and Warren Leon from the Union of Concerned Scientists is to reduce driving and buy a very fuel efficient and low emission vehicle. Walk, bike or take public transportation whenever feasible.
Individual and cooperative responsible action will need to take place in a fairly short period of time. We are all sharing this one and only wondrous and fragile planet. Let’s keep it wondrous for our grandkids now instead of wondering later why we didn’t.
For more information:
NRDC- www.nrdc.org/
Union of Concerned Scientists- www.ucsusa.org/
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change- www.ipcc.ch/
Global Warming Hotspots- www.climatehotmap.org/
